Good luck Sharks!

Super 14 - Semi Two

Have the Aussies learnt a thing or two from the World cup?   Defence wins world cups and you don’t need a crowbar to read between the lines of Dick Muir’s recent statements that he might reckon the same goes for S14.

Sharks will be looking to defend well and build on their scrum dominance.  However, it bound not to go all their way as Tahs have conceded even less points this tournament than the Sharks.  So don’t expect big scores from this one with 28 full back positions.

Waratahs might be excused for spending more time reading papers this week than training as the speculation rages about what’s to become of the Link. Reckon you could find some Crusaders behind the campaign to get him reinstated before he jumps ship to become their coach.  Too much Anzac wife swapping for me…

Waratahs have dominated throughout the years with 6/7 game wins.  The inclusion of Bryce Lawrence as coach wont be appreciated by the Sharks either after his double hammer-blow yellow cards at their Brumbies game a couple of weeks ago.  And frankly, if they include Steyn in the starting line up, that will blow out their ‘conservative’ approach too.  Love the guy, but he’s as irregular as he is hairy.

Waratahs by 10

Also, you might want to look at a Sharks/Tahs HT/FT angle.

Hope I’m wrong.   Cos if they can beat the Tahs, I definitely reckon they could dissect the Canes or ‘Saders. 

100k on Crusaders

NZD 172,000 got lost on just 2 bets in NZ last weekend, according to Rugbyheaven.co.nz, when the Crusaders lost against the Highlanders.

One was on the crusaders at odds of 1.08 and another was on the double, Stormers\Crusaders.

TAB recorded their most profitable match since 1996.

http://rugbyheaven.co.nz/4552579a25923.html

 

Super 14 - Semi one

Crusaders get their home semi against the hurricanes.  Both are coming off losses from the previous week and will have something to prove.  Crusaders have been getting worse and worse but frankly, it wouldn’t surprise me if the conspiracy theorists were right and they’ve been underplaying.  One, it will give the canes a false sense of security and two; they were both games they could afford to lose.

Canes haven’t beaten the Saders since 2004. That’s 8 games ago (including friendlies).  Crusaders have scored more and conceded less throughout the tournament.  The things that in the Canes favour are that both teams have lost 2 and won 2 against NZ teams and they at least have played moderately consistently, at least in the last couple of weeks.

So if you believe the conspiracies the home team should smash them and if you don’t then the Canes have a chance against and struggling Christchurch team.   I’m somewhere in the middle but that still leaves the Crusaders ahead at full time, 9 points ahead.

Crusaders have had 10 full time wins from half time losses so again I don’t its a bad bet to go for the Canes/Saders HT/Ft angle.

Data/Jet lag

I’m off to NZ and Aus tomorrow, so apologies to all who are waiting for Rugbyoracle to be updated.   Observant individuals amongst you might have noticed that I’ve had it predict to the final.

Obviously its going to be missing some details like Refs, team details and betting odds.  While its still possible that this might make a difference to its picks I think its quite unlikely.

So if its turns out to be wrong on the semi’s you wont see an update on the site, but I should be able to get to a computer in Christchurch and blog up an update for ya’ll.

enjoy the games!

Super 14 - Round 14 - Part 2

Crusaders take on kiwi bottom of the table team.  Everyone’s predicting a drumming, but against reasonable teams, the Crusaders have been relatively quiet.  Reckon they’ll be nervous about injuries again and will be playing conservatively, whereas the Dunedin crew has nothing to loose.  On that basis the 3.40-1, odds on Crusaders by less than 12.5 look interesting. Crusaders by 10.

Waratahs v reds should be good.  Tahs have won the last 4 times they’ve played and are playing well.  The reds with a relatively inexperienced team, playing some excellent rugby in the last three games.  Tahs will be playing cautiously too.   Expect a low scoring game with a possible reds/Tahs ht/ft dynamic.  Tahs by 6.

Cheerleader stats

Just been doing some analysis on my blogstats and the search terms that are driving traffic to my blog by a HUGE margin include the word “Cheerleaders”. Excellent.

The Top 3 search terms are:

“super 14 cheerleaders”;

“stormers cheerleaders”; and

“super 14″. 

“super 14 rugby predictions” is way, way down there. 

Good to know that those hours I spend putting the data together are no match for pictures of girls in tight fitting lycra.

I’ll see if I can find any more….

Super 14 - Round 14 - Part 1

The Jaffas host the Canes in Fridays crucial match.  Both teams have the possibility of making the semi’s.  Both have been in form for the last couple of matches against relatively weaker teams (Blues have beaten the Reds and the Highlanders and the Canes have rolled over the Lions, Cheetahs and Force).  Blues have scored more points but have more significantly conceded 100 points more than the Canes.  Both have lost 1 and won 2 against NZ teams.
So its a tough call but I think the canes have been the more consistant team this year and considering they have won the last three encounters, they should go through again.   Hurricanes by 3.
Hurricanes to win under 12.5 is paying 3.35-1.

The porn capital of Australia take on the Force in Perth.  Just as the Brumbies touch down from their long SA trip than they’e boomeranging back to Perth. They’ll be knackered with little to play for except farwelling their hairy-headed coach.  Force have yet to beat the Brumbies and have a couple of injuries, but I dont think this will stop them giving it all in this their last match of the season.   Force by 6.
Also Force have lost quite a few games in the second half so the 7-1 odds on Force/Brumbies HT/FT isnt a bad option.

Rugbyoracle root to the semi

There is no nice way to say this, so Sharks supporters avert your eyes now. I can’t see the sharks making the semi’s.  There.

A quick analysis of the teams and this is what I have come up with.

Hurricanes should win against the blues but it’s going to be close and no bonus point for the Hurricanes, but it won’t matter.

Waratahs should overrun the Reds like they have in the last 4 encounters. But again no bonus point for the Tahs, even though the Reds have been conceding an average of 30 points for the last three games these two teams end up in traditionally low scoring matches.  Again, this will be enough for the Tahs to make the semi’s.

Prime mover and the semi-trailers

Well we all know who the smug prime mover at the top is.
But for the rest of us, Planetrugby have kindly spelt out the semi-final route for the remaining 6 teams that still have a chance. Yes, that’s right, 6. Long trailer.
Crusaders are guaranteed a home semi but the other semi could be played almost anywhere…
And just to make things harder all games apart from the Sharks are derbies, almost guaranteeing some surprises.
I still can’t see my Chiefs 18-1 ticket to win S14 coming off though.

http://www.planet-rugby.com/Story/0,18259,3824_3558676,00.html

Rugbyoracle.com update

Just to let you know I have made the decision to shut rugbyoracle.com down from the end of the Super 14 season while I figure out what to do with it.

I enjoy doing it and I think the stats aren’t bad.  It’s a good predictor, as good as anything that the betting shops have going, I reckon.  72% for the super 14 is pretty good and they’re improving each year.

That said, I don’t make any money out of it and it’s a great deal of work to produce detailed information when I think most of you just want the bottom line.

So the website will shut down but I will maintain the rugblog on wordpress and will hopefully look for new ways to improve its stats if I manage to get the time.

Thanks for watching!

Nick

Super 14 - Round 13 - Part 2

The Blues have the slimmest of chances of making the semi’s and this weekend will be crucial for them.  Blues have an awful track record at House of pain, having only won there once before.  Blues scraped through a great game last weekend against the reds, which won’t exactly fill them with joy.  Highlanders have just made the journey back from SA, so will be tired but at home and with very little play for except pride.  I’m gonna say the Blues by 7 but I reckon odds of 3.65-1 on a Derby game are not bad.